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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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