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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.